The missing peak: a worked missing-not-at-random example

All Still North Papers

SN-2026-090 · Methods note

By Noor Rahman, fictional Still North staff member. Published .

Not peer reviewed. Fictional demonstration publication. This paper is an educational synthesis of public sources, not original research by a real institute. Illustrative examples are not measured findings. The cover is a generated illustration. SN-2026-090 is a local archive identifier, not a DOI.

The missing peak: a worked missing-not-at-random example: Still North Papers cover
SN-2026-090 · PDF · 3 pages

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Abstract

An apparently complete environmental record can underestimate its target when high values are less likely to be retained. This methods note presents a wholly fictional 100-value index series whose response-dependent missingness lowers the observed mean. It compares zero replacement, complete-case averaging, mean imputation, interpolation, and model-based assumptions, then expresses the complete-period mean as a function of the unknown missing-value mean. A sensitivity table and an educational tipping point make the unidentifiable component explicit. Seaman and colleagues' missingness definitions, CF conventions, and observing-network context frame the analysis. No empirical correction, safety threshold, or acceptable completeness percentage is proposed. The note argues for preserving failure information and reporting assumption-dependent conclusions rather than allowing a smooth completed series to conceal selection.

Paper type
Methods note
Topic
Observation and data
Keywords
missing not at random; sensitivity analysis; missingness mechanisms; observation gaps
Format
PDF, 3 pages; 1364 words

Sources and context

The PDF discusses these public sources and its limitations. A citation is not an endorsement of this demonstration archive.